Even if you’re a 2011 Belmont Stakes betting player, you have to be paying attention to one of the best NBA Finals in a while between Dallas and Miami, which was tied up at two games apiece heading into a critical Game 5 in Dallas on Thursday night. Can the Mavericks avenge their 2006 loss to the Heat?

Even if the Mavericks win Game 5 to take a 3-2 lead back to Miami, the Heat are still the smart play as they’ve been great at home so far in the playoffs, and in Miami, they’ll likely get an improved LeBron James, who was awful offensively in Game 4’s two-point loss. At home, look for James to be much more aggressive and not just be content to be a defensive stopper, leaving the offensive duties to Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.

Another big reason that Miami will win the title is because Dallas’ role players really struggled in Miami, and role players generally tend to play better at home than they are on the road. With the title on the line and the lights getting brighter as the games go on, how will the likes of J.J. Barea, Tyson Chandler and Shawn Marion play?

It’s going to be a couple of close games, as this series has been a hard-fought bout, but the Heat have the talent and the defense to take it. Dallas can win, it definitely is a possibility, but it wouldn’t be a smart bet in your online sports betting book.